Can you ever see the EU and Russia having convergent economies and economic trajectories? Without that any financial union would be a disaster for one side or other.
The UK could join the EU economically, just not politically at the moment.
Yes but there is something to be gained - stability - in a currency union with a major energy exporter.
Of course, w're talking about Russia, so there's no *net* gain in stability.
Nevertheless, I can point to that as a functional argument for Russia in the Eurozone. There really are none for England that outweigh the risks accompanying London's reckless banking behemoths.
I understood that the Europeans had for years been doing everything they could to get out of long-term contracts fixing the price for Russian gas. The contracts were denominated in dollars, which are a lot more stable against the Euro than energy is.
Neither looks at all likely, but the only obstacles to the UK joining are in domestic politics, while Russia would find it very hard to obtain EU membership, on any terms, however united the country became in seeking it.
One can imagine circumstances in which the UK might need to join the single currency: a fiscal crisis where the only source of bail-out was the ECB, but the loan is offered on terms forcing the country into the euro, say. A crisis in Russia would be worse, but if its economy collapsed---still a remote chance, surely?---the path out would be through government default and dollarisation of the economy as citizens abandoned the rouble as worthless. The dollarising currency well might be the euro, but that scenario is nothing like Russia having membership of the currency.
So I would bet heavily on the UK, but I would certainly decline to put the stake into escrow until the matter is decided.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2014-12-16 03:24 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2014-12-16 03:50 pm (UTC)The UK could join the EU economically, just not politically at the moment.
no subject
Date: 2014-12-16 11:21 pm (UTC)Of course, w're talking about Russia, so there's no *net* gain in stability.
Nevertheless, I can point to that as a functional argument for Russia in the Eurozone. There really are none for England that outweigh the risks accompanying London's reckless banking behemoths.
no subject
Date: 2014-12-17 11:15 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2014-12-17 12:54 am (UTC)I say it won't, and shouldn't.
no subject
Date: 2014-12-17 11:09 am (UTC)One can imagine circumstances in which the UK might need to join the single currency: a fiscal crisis where the only source of bail-out was the ECB, but the loan is offered on terms forcing the country into the euro, say. A crisis in Russia would be worse, but if its economy collapsed---still a remote chance, surely?---the path out would be through government default and dollarisation of the economy as citizens abandoned the rouble as worthless. The dollarising currency well might be the euro, but that scenario is nothing like Russia having membership of the currency.
So I would bet heavily on the UK, but I would certainly decline to put the stake into escrow until the matter is decided.