Well, that's another holiday destination ruled out

[fivemack]

OK, it looks as if Russia is trying to do to Georgia in re South Ossetia what NATO did to Serbia in re Kosovo; I'm a little surprised I haven't heard Russian politicians making the comparison explicit. Except that Kosovo did not seek immediate merger with Albania, whilst I suspect the resolution of the current mess may well have South Ossetia become part of Russia de jure rather than the current de-facto status.

Time to import more wine, maybe. My sympathies are generally with Georgia, small democracies starting off with quite a lot of points in their favour against Russia, except for the major detail that, as far as I can see, Georgia started this debacle. They can't have expected the Russians to behave other than they have, so what did they expect to achieve?

Has Lebanon been war-free for long enough to contemplate a visit? My plans for Easter 2009 are still unformed.

Comments

[htfb.livejournal.com]

"The most pessimistic interpretation is that the Kremlin, having decided that the West is too divided and distracted to care about Georgia, is increasing the pressure in order to destabilise its small neighbour and perhaps replace the current rulers with a more pro-Russian lot. If so, one should fear serious bloodshed." [The Economist, April 2008, about Abkhazia. The thrust of the article is that both governments were tempted to escalate the conflicts.]

Like much of the world, it's not a good place to worry about "who started it". But for Russia to claim (in I thought fairly explicit analogy with Kosovo) that the Georgians have been indulging in ethnic cleansing in a region which their army has been present as peace-keepers for years, and in which their army officers have been integrated into the South Ossetian government, is more than a bit rich.

[ewx.livejournal.com]

I think the Russians made the comparison around the time that Kosovo actually declared independence?

Incidentally the thing about Kosovo that makes me twitchy is: if it's about self-determination, why are the majority-Serb bits that are contiguous with the rest of Serbia, being included in Kosovo?

[(Anonymous)]

Would that be Georgia the small democracy with the American-educated leader who was put into place in his mid-thirties after another of those convincing colour-coded revolutions? Forgive me if democracy isn't the word that immediately springs to mind. The Soviet fringe is the new Latin America.

what did they expect to achieve

[ewx.livejournal.com]

It would have been insane to imagine either that Russia would stand by, or that NATO wouldn't.

Georgia's decision-makers could of course be deluded, it wouldn't be the first time a war started that way.

Perhaps it was a deliberate attempt to make Russia play its hand now rather than at some point in the future.

[mobbsy.livejournal.com]

Lebanon is still looking rather more unstable than it did when I was there. They seem to be limping from one crisis to the next, but there are a couple of signs that things might be getting better.

[(Anonymous)]

http://exiledonline.com/georgia-gets-its-war-onmccain-gets-his-brain-plaque/

[(Anonymous)]

Alright, now Russia are behaving badly (as of 12/8/8). But until now it's all been totally justified.